IYABO OBASANJO, APC AND OGUN 2027 CALCULATIONS
The political race for the 2027 governorship election in Ogun State gathered momentum on Saturday, February 7, when Senator Iyabo Obasanjo
announced her intention to contest.
The announcement, made during a radio programme,
immediately stirred debate across the state.
Not a few observers were surprised. Only weeks earlier,
she had reportedly expressed a contrary position during
an interview in Remo, Ogun State, distancing herself
from any immediate political comeback.
That earlier denial came amid billboards suggesting she
was returning from what appeared to be a self-imposed
political sabbatical.
In that interview, she spoke about supporters who had
“unsuccessfully coaxed” her back into politics after she
exited active participation in 2011.
Her apparent volte-face, coming barely weeks after pub
licly signalling disinterest, has therefore raised questions.
By her own account, she is being “drafted” by unnamed
supporters. One is left to wonder whether mounting
pressure from political associates persuaded her to re-
consider her earlier stance.
Her decision to throw her hat into the Ogun 2027 ring.
albeit by her own telling, without initial enthusiasm,
deserves scrutiny from stakeholders in Ogun’s political
and governance landscape.
Let me enter a disclaimer. I am not writing on behalf of
Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, with
whom I have been associated since 2011 and for whom I
presently serve as Chief of Staff and Media Adviser.
It is no secret that many Ogun indigenes are urging Sen-
ator Adeola to declare his ambition “at the appropriate
time,” though he has yet to make any official announce
ment.
I write as a founding member of the All Progressives
Congress (APC), an indigene of Ogun State, deeply invested in its development, and someone who has participated in the state’s political and governance processes since 1997.
As a community leader and traditional chief (Baaroyin.
Majeobaje and Osorun), I speak as a stakeholder exercising my democratic right.
Yes, I am partisan within the APC, and yes, my sympathies lean toward Senator Adeola. But this piece is not about promoting any candidacy. That time will come when the party formally opens its process.
At present, only Senator Iyabo Obasanjo and Hon. Abio-
dun Akinlade are on record as declared aspirants. The interrogation of Akínlàdé ambition can wait for another day
The first issue that strikes me about Senator Obasanjo’s
declaration is her political origin and trajectory.
She is not only the most politically visible child of former
President Olusegun Obasanjo, but she has also served as
a commissioner in Ogun State and as a one-term senator
under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform.
Her political formation and family heritage are firmly
strategy within the APC and
beyond rooted in the PDP tradition.
This naturally raises eyebrows regarding her choice of (ADC), but that the coalition there is “yet to have its the APC as the platform for her new ambition.
The APC is the ruling party at both the federal and state levels, with President Bola Tinubu as its national leader. It is public knowledge that there has been “no love lost” between President Tinubu and former President Obasanjo.
In the run-up to the 2023 presidential election, Chief
Obasanjo did not support Tinubu’s candidacy. Looking
ahead to 2027, many analysts believe the former president would likely support “a Peter Obi, a Musa Kwankwaso, a Rotimi Amaechi or anyone else, except Tinubu, and yes, Atiku.”
Given this context, why is Senator Obasanjo pitching
her tent in a party led by someone her father is widely
perceived to oppose?
Was the former president consulted? Did he give his
blessing? Or is the APC merely a convenient platform
for a broader political agenda engineered by those who
“drafted” her back into the arena?
A similar, though not identical, development occurred
recently when Abba Abubakar Atiku, son of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, declared for the APC
and directed members of the Haske Atiku Organisation
to align with the party and support President Tinubu’s
“Renewed Hope Agenda.”
The key difference is that Abba Atiku’s move was framed as a personal conviction rather than an immediate quest for office.
Former Vice President Atiku publicly clarified that his
son’s decision “to join APC is entirely personal,” adding,
“As a democrat, I do not coerce my own children in matters of conscience.”
The public now awaits Chief Obasanjo’s own response
to his daughter’s political reorientation. Will he adopt a
similar stance? Or will he offer a more pointed reaction?
Time will tell.
Some commentators are already drawing parallels with
the Saraki political dynasty in Kwara State, where Senator Bukola Saraki effectively eclipsed his father, Senator Olusola Saraki, in shaping the state’s political direction. Others speculate about “hidden calculations” by scions of former PDP heavyweights as they reposition within the ruling party.
This brings us to the APC itself and the Ogun 2027 equation.
Since 2011, the APC and its predecessor formations
have maintained dominance in Ogun State, notwith-
standing internal crises and electoral turbulence.
Since 2019, the party’s stability has largely rested on the
shoulders of Governor Dapo Abiodun, Chief Olusegun
Osoba and Senator Adeola. These leaders have navigat
ed internal dissent, managed “anti-party activities” and
preserved cohesion in moments that could have frac-
tured the party.
Public commentators have described Senator Adeola as
“a good ambassador of APC, not only in Ogun State but
across Nigeria.”
As 2027 approaches, the critical question is whether the
party should risk its cohesion by fielding candidates per-
ceived as reluctant entrants or political converts whose
long-term commitment to the party remains uncertain.
In her remarks, Senator Obasanjo described the PDP as
beset by “all kinds of turmoil.”
She also indicated that, given an alternative, she might
have preferred the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but that’s coalition there is, yet to have it’s ducks in a row; they are still working on it.”
Does this imply the APC is a temporary platform pend-
ing the stabilisation other political arrangements?
That is a legitimate concern for party loyalists Nevertheless, one commendable aspect of her declaration is that it may blunt attempts by some actors to inject religious sentiment into the calculations for Ogun 2027.
Ogun State has historically maintained a delicate bal-
ance between its major religious communities without
allowing religion to dominate political recruitment.
There is always informal balancing between governor
and deputy governor across faith lines, but the state’s
political culture has not been overtly sectarian. Families
are intertwined across religious divides
Senator Obasanjo’s declaration reinforces the principle
that leadership selection in Ogun is shaped more by
competence and political viability than by faith.
As more aspirants step forward, the APC remains the dominant political platform in the state. Other parties appear weakened or fragmented.
When the time comes, party members will critically as-
sess all aspirants to ensure that Ogun State continues on
a progressive trajectory.
For now, the questions raised by Senator Obasanjo’s en-
try into the race remain central: motive, platform loyalty, political alignment and long-term commitment.
The 2027 contest promises to be more than a routine suc
cession battle. It will test loyalty, ideology, structure and
strategy within the APC and beyond.
The calculations have begun.
Chief Kayode Odunaro writes from Abeokuta,
Ogun State
